A NASA satellite is expected to crash back to Earth on Tuesday, March 10, after spending nearly 14 years in orbit. The spacecraft in question is Van Allen Probe A, which weighs around 1,323 pounds (600 kilograms). It was launched alongside its twin, Van Allen Probe B, in August 2012 to study the radiation belts that surround Earth. Both probes were deactivated in 2019, but Probe A’s time in orbit has now reached its end. Experts say most of the satellite will burn up on reentry, though some fragments could survive. The risk to people on the ground is low, roughly 1 in 4,200.The estimated reentry time, according to the US Space Force, is 7:45 pm EDT on March 10, give or take 24 hours. Observers note that this is only an estimate, and adjustments may occur as tracking data improves. Any surviving pieces are likely to fall in the ocean, since water covers nearly 70 per cent of Earth’s surface. It seems unlikely that any major city would see debris landing nearby.
NASA’s Van Allen probe satellite expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere on March 10
The Van Allen Probes were initially called the Radiation Belt Storm Probes. They orbited Earth in a highly elliptical path, ranging from about 384 miles (618 km) to 18,900 miles (30,415 km) away. The mission was designed to last only two years, but both satellites exceeded expectations. Probe A continued collecting data until October 2019, while Probe B operated until July 2019. Experts say that solar activity in recent years has expanded Earth’s atmosphere, increasing frictional drag on satellites. This likely caused Probe A to descend earlier than originally planned.During their operational years, the Van Allen Probes gathered data on the radiation belts around Earth. Scientists use this information to understand how solar activity affects satellites, astronauts, and even systems on the ground, like communications networks, GPS, and power grids. By studying these regions, researchers reportedly improved forecasts for space weather events, which can sometimes interfere with electronic systems on Earth. The data also helps plan for future missions and better predict hazards from solar storms.
NASA details satellite reentry and debris risk
NASA notes that most of the satellite will burn up as it passes through the atmosphere. Still, certain components might survive. These fragments could splash down in the ocean, making the risk to humans very small. Experts estimate about a 0.02 per cent chance of injury. Observers say that while it is interesting to track, people don’t need to worry. The Space Force will update reentry predictions in real time, so more precise timing may come closer to the event.
What will happen to NASA’s second Van Allen probe satellite
Probe B is not expected to return to Earth until around 2030. Its descent appears to be less affected by recent solar activity than Probe A. Both satellites were deactivated but remain in orbit until their reentry. They continue to serve as a reference for scientists studying space weather and its effects. Experts say tracking their descent helps improve understanding of orbital decay and atmospheric drag, which is useful for other satellites still in service.
