Origins, Consequences & the Path to Peace

Overview: The Five W’s at a Glance

AT A GLANCE: KEY FACTS

Conflict Start:  February 28, 2026 – US & Israel launched airstrikes on Iran (Operation Epic Fury) Key Event (2025):  12-Day War between Israel and Iran (June 13–24, 2025) Ceasefire:  Conditional ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8, 2026 (extended; talks ongoing) Status (May 2026):  Ceasefire holds but negotiations remain stalled; Strait of Hormuz effectively closed Oil Impact:  Global oil prices surged 25%+; Brent crude broke $100/barrel at peak

WHO?	United States, Israel, Iran, proxy forces (Hezbollah, militias in Iraq/Lebanon), and mediators (Pakistan, China, Oman, Qatar)
WHAT?	Joint US-Israeli military strikes targeting Iran’s nuclear programme and government, followed by Iranian counter-strikes and closure of the Strait of Hormuz
WHERE?	Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, US military bases across the Middle East
WHEN?	Escalating since June 2025 (12-Day War); Major phase: February 28, 2026 – present; Conditional ceasefire: April 8, 2026
WHY?	Decades of tension over Iran’s nuclear programme, regional proxy warfare, failed nuclear diplomacy, and Iran’s weakened post-protest position

Executive Summary

This paper provides a comprehensive analytical overview of the ongoing Israel–Iran–US military conflict that escalated dramatically in 2025 and 2026. Using the Five-W journalistic and academic framework — Who, What, Where, When, Why — alongside additional questions on consequences and resolution, this paper examines the roots of this conflict, its global ramifications, and the prospects for peace.

1. WHY Is This Happening?

1.1 Deep Historical Roots

The conflict between Iran and Israel/the United States did not emerge overnight. Its roots lie in decades of geopolitical rivalry, ideological antagonism, and competing regional interests.

• Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution transformed it from a US ally into a declared enemy of both Washington and Tel Aviv.
• Iran’s government has consistently called for the elimination of Israel, funding proxy armed groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and other militias across the Middle East.
• The United States has regarded Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism and a destabilising force in the region for over four decades.
• Iran’s nuclear programme has been a central flashpoint — Western nations fear Iran is developing nuclear weapons capability, while Tehran insists it is for peaceful purposes.

1.2 The Collapse of Diplomatic Efforts

The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which placed limits on Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief, collapsed after the US withdrew in 2018 under President Trump. Despite attempts to revive negotiations throughout 2025 and into early 2026, indirect talks facilitated by Oman failed in February 2026 — just days before the military strikes began.

Key Factor: President Trump stated he was ‘not thrilled’ with the February 2026 negotiations, signalling the US preference for a military approach over a diplomatic one.

1.3 Iran’s Weakened Position Encouraged Military Action

By early 2026, Iran was in a considerably weakened state due to multiple compounding pressures:

• Crippling US and international sanctions had devastated Iran’s economy, sending its currency into freefall.
• Israeli strikes in 2024 and a joint 12-day military campaign in June 2025 had significantly degraded Iran’s air defences and damaged its nuclear programme.
• Iran’s regional proxy network — including Hezbollah and Hamas — had been severely weakened by Israeli military action from 2023 onward.
• Major domestic protests erupted in late 2025 and January 2026, reflecting widespread popular frustration with the regime. The government’s brutal crackdown, which killed at least 30,000 people according to Iran’s own Ministry of Health, further delegitimised it internationally.

The United States and Israel calculated that Iran’s weakened condition offered a historically rare window to neutralise its nuclear programme and potentially reshape the Iranian government through military pressure.

2. WHAT Happened? WHERE and WHEN?

2.1 Timeline of Key Events

DATE	EVENT
June 13–24, 2025	The 12-Day War: Israel strikes Iran’s nuclear facilities and military targets; Iran retaliates. A US-Qatar-mediated ceasefire ends the conflict.
Sept–Oct 2025	Snapback sanctions triggered by UK, France, Germany under the 2015 nuclear deal. Iran’s currency collapses.
Dec 2025 – Jan 2026	Mass protests erupt across Iran over economic crisis and weakening of the regime. Government crackdown kills tens of thousands.
Feb 2026	Indirect US–Iran nuclear talks in Oman collapse. Trump expresses dissatisfaction. Military buildup begins.
Feb 28, 2026	US and Israel launch joint airstrikes on Iran (Operation Epic Fury), killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeting nuclear and military infrastructure.
Feb 28 – Mar 2026	Iran retaliates with ballistic missiles against Israel, US military bases, and Gulf Arab states. Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz.
April 7–8, 2026	Pakistan brokers a conditional two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran; later extended.
April 11–12, 2026	Direct US–Iran talks in Islamabad (VP Vance and Iranian parliament speaker Ghalibaf) — the highest-level direct engagement since 1979. Talks fail.
April 16, 2026	US-brokered Israel–Lebanon ceasefire announced, effective for 10 days.
April 17, 2026	France and UK announce international defensive mission for the Strait of Hormuz, pending a sustainable ceasefire.
May 2026	Ceasefire extended indefinitely by Trump; talks remain stalled; Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed at ~5% of normal traffic.

2.2 Geographic Scope

The conflict is centred on Iran but has spread across the wider Middle East region. Military operations and retaliatory strikes have affected Israel, Lebanon, Iraq, Bahrain, Qatar, Cyprus, and commercial shipping lanes throughout the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea. The Strait of Hormuz — the narrow channel between Iran and Oman through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil and 20% of global liquefied natural gas passes — has become the single most critical strategic chokepoint in the conflict.

3. WHO Is Responsible?

Responsibility for the conflict involves multiple parties acting on different — sometimes overlapping — levels of culpability.

3.1 The United States and Israel

The US and Israel fired the first shots in the current phase of the war, launching joint airstrikes on February 28, 2026. Both governments framed their actions as a necessary pre-emptive strike to permanently remove Iran’s nuclear threat and to respond to decades of Iranian proxy warfare. Critics argue the decision to strike during ongoing negotiations — and to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader — represented a dramatic and dangerous escalation that could have been avoided with sustained diplomacy.

3.2 Iran

Iran’s decades-long policy of supporting armed proxy groups across the Middle East — funding Hezbollah, Hamas, and militias in Iraq and Yemen — has contributed substantially to regional instability. Its pursuit of nuclear enrichment in defiance of international agreements, and its violent repression of domestic protests in 2025 and 2026, bear significant moral and political responsibility for the chain of events that led to the current conflict.

3.3 Multiple Decades of Failed Diplomacy

Responsibility also extends to the broader international community. The collapse of the JCPOA, driven by the US withdrawal in 2018, removed the primary framework for constraining Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Subsequent failures to negotiate a replacement — despite multiple rounds of talks in 2025 and 2026 — reflect a deeper failure of multilateral diplomacy involving the US, EU, Russia, and China.

Note: Attributing sole responsibility to any single actor is analytically insufficient. This is a conflict born of cascading failures: diplomatic, political, and strategic — involving multiple governments over multiple decades.

4. What Are the Economic Consequences for the World?

4.1 The Energy Shock

The most immediate and severe economic impact has been on global energy markets. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 27% of the world’s maritime trade in crude oil and petroleum products. Iran’s closure of the strait has effectively suspended this flow, with shipping traffic falling to approximately 5% of its pre-conflict monthly level of around 3,000 vessels.

• Brent crude oil prices jumped 8% in the first two trading days after the conflict began — from $71.32/barrel on February 27 to $77.24/barrel on March 2, 2026.
• Prices subsequently broke through the $100/barrel mark as the conflict continued.
• Analysts from major financial institutions forecast Brent crude averaging around $113/barrel in Q2 2026, before falling back toward $80/barrel by year-end.
• Global oil prices surged by more than 25% overall since the start of the war.
• A near-complete shutdown of the strait has suspended up to 140 million barrels of oil — equivalent to roughly 1.4 days of global demand — from reaching refiners worldwide.

4.2 Global Inflation and Growth

The energy shock is translating directly into higher consumer prices worldwide. Economists project that inflation in the eurozone could peak at over 4% year-on-year, US inflation could reach 3%, and Japan could see 2.5% inflation as a direct consequence of the conflict. This is likely to prompt monetary policy tightening by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.

• Petrol prices in the US reached $3.41 per gallon within the first week of the conflict, up $0.43 in a single week.
• Fertiliser prices surged, threatening food costs globally — particularly in developing nations.
• Agricultural commodity prices have risen due to increased fuel and logistics costs.
• Airline ticket prices spiked dramatically on routes affected by airspace closures over the Middle East.

4.3 Supply Chain and Trade Disruptions

More than 80% of global trade moves by sea, making maritime disruptions in the Persian Gulf a threat to global supply chains far beyond energy commodities. Shipping giants have raised freight rates urgently. Commodities including helium, fertilisers, and industrial products that transit the Strait of Hormuz face severe delays. Several Asian nations — heavily dependent on Gulf oil — face acute fuel shortages and, in some cases, panic buying.

World Economic Forum: Iran, unable to match US-Israeli military power, is deliberately internationalising the costs of the war by targeting energy, shipping, and civilian infrastructure. The logic is to raise the price of escalation until political pressure for de-escalation builds.

4.4 Geopolitical-Economic Paradox

The conflict has created a notable strategic contradiction: US military action has imposed enormous economic costs on many of the same economies that are America’s most important trading and strategic partners. These damaged allied economies — in Europe, Asia, and the Gulf — will make coalition-building for post-conflict stabilisation considerably more difficult.

Russia and Iran itself have been temporary beneficiaries of higher oil prices. Russia in particular has benefited from the upward pressure on global energy markets caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

5. How Can This Be Ended?

5.1 Current State of Negotiations

As of May 2026, a conditional ceasefire — brokered by Pakistan on April 8 — remains in place and has been extended indefinitely by President Trump. However, substantive peace negotiations have largely stalled. The April 11–12 Islamabad talks between US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf — the highest-level direct US–Iran engagement since the 1979 Islamic Revolution — ended without an agreement.

5.2 Core Issues on the Negotiating Table

Any durable resolution must address several interconnected and politically sensitive issues:

• Iran’s Nuclear Programme: Iran must accept verifiable limits on uranium enrichment, which Iran disputes as infringing its sovereignty. This remains the central sticking point.
• Strait of Hormuz: Iran has demanded international recognition of sovereignty over the Strait; the US, UK, and allies insist on unconditional freedom of navigation.
• Sanctions Relief: Iran seeks removal of crippling economic sanctions as part of any deal. The US has linked sanctions relief to verifiable nuclear disarmament.
• Iran’s Proxy Networks: Trump has demanded that Iran cease funding and arming proxy groups across the Middle East — Hezbollah, militias in Iraq, and others. Iran views these as legitimate allies.
• War Reparations: Iran has demanded reparations for damage caused by US-Israeli strikes. The US has not accepted this as a starting position.
• Security Guarantees: Iran wants international guarantees against future military action, potentially involving China, Russia, Turkey, and Pakistan.

5.3 Pathways to Resolution

Analysts and international observers have identified several potential pathways:

PATHWAY	DESCRIPTION
Phased Nuclear Deal	A two-phase approach: first, a 45-day ceasefire enabling negotiations, then a comprehensive agreement covering the nuclear programme, sanctions, and normalisation.
Multilateral Mediation	Pakistan is the current primary mediator. China and Russia have proposed joint peace frameworks. A broader multilateral process — similar to the original JCPOA format — could provide stronger guarantees.
Strait of Hormuz Agreement	An internationally supervised arrangement for freedom of navigation, potentially with a multinational escort force. France and the UK have proposed a defensive international mission.
Proxy Network Disarmament	Hezbollah’s military activities have already been banned by Lebanon’s government. Broader agreements to formalise the end of Iranian proxy funding could be a confidence-building measure.
Reconstruction Package	International investment in Iranian reconstruction and economic development, conditional on verifiable nuclear restraint, could shift Iran’s cost-benefit calculation toward peace.

5.4 Obstacles to Peace

Despite ongoing negotiations, significant obstacles remain:

• Israeli PM Netanyahu has stated that the conditional ceasefire does not override Israel’s remaining military objectives — suggesting Israel may resume strikes.
• The US position demanding Iran’s ‘unconditional surrender’ (as stated by Trump in March 2026) is fundamentally incompatible with Iran’s minimum negotiating requirements.
• China and Russia vetoed a UN Security Council draft resolution in April 2026 calling for freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, reflecting continued great-power competition over the conflict’s resolution.
• Any long-term agreement on the Strait of Hormuz likely depends on first resolving the nuclear issue — creating a sequential dependency that complicates the timeline.

6. Conclusion

The Israel–Iran–US conflict of 2025–2026 is one of the most significant geopolitical crises of the 21st century. It represents the convergence of decades of accumulated tensions: over nuclear proliferation, regional proxy warfare, failed diplomacy, economic sanctions, and domestic political pressures in multiple countries.

The conflict’s consequences extend far beyond the military theatre. The global energy shock, supply chain disruptions, and inflationary pressures are being felt from Asia to Europe to the Americas. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most critical oil chokepoint — has transformed a regional war into a global economic crisis.

Resolution remains elusive but not impossible. The conditional ceasefire holds. Mediation channels — led by Pakistan, with China and others engaged — remain open. The core issues are definable: nuclear limits, freedom of navigation, sanctions, and regional security architecture. What is missing is the political will on all sides to make the necessary compromises.

The lesson this conflict offers is stark: the cost of military escalation, in human lives and economic damage, has been staggering. The cost of sustained diplomacy, while frustrating and slow, would have been incomparably lower. For students of international relations, this conflict is a defining case study in the limits of military power and the indispensable role of sustained, multilateral diplomacy in preventing and resolving wars.

Sources & References

The following sources were consulted in the preparation of this paper:

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